Insights

January 2020

All quiet on the UK high street

FIXED INCOME DESK

In Credit - Weekly Snapshot

Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.

December 2019

A supportive environment for investment grade credit

Alasdair Ross

Head of Investment Grade Credit, EMEA

Global Investment Grade Credit

The macro environment we face is one of low economic growth, low inflation, and loose monetary policy. That can be considered something of a sweet spot for investment grade credit. Corporate earnings are strong enough for the moderate leverage in the asset class, and investors’ search for high-quality yield supports bond prices.

December 2019

Building on 2019’s green bond resurgence

Simon Bond

Director of Responsible Investment

Green, Social and Sustainability Bonds

In almost whatever country you care to mention, climate change and social inequality are exploding into the public consciousness. Extinction Rebellion in the UK or the Gilets Jaune in Paris are just two of the more high-profile signs. Yet in the financial markets, too, green, social and sustainability bonds are growing in number and sophistication.

December 2019

Trade is not the only drag on growth

Adrian Hilton

Head of Global Rates and Currencies

Rates & Currencies

Entering 2019, our main expectations were for slower growth, easier monetary policy globally and continuing pressure on bond yields. At a high level, that is how the year played out. But the path to those outcomes has at times surprised us.

December 2019

Emerging market debt rally set to moderate

Tim Jagger

Head of Emerging Market Debt

Emerging Market Debt

Emerging market (EM) debt started 2019 at attractive valuations. This followed a nine-month slide as the US Federal Reserve moved to normalise monetary policy and raise interest rates, which naturally strengthened the dollar and increased EMs’ funding costs.

December 2019

Trade war clouds the outlook

David Donora

Head of Commodities

Commodities

The trade war has significantly slowed economic growth in emerging markets (EMs) this year, which has had major implications for commodity prices, given that EMs are the biggest driver of growth in demand for commodities.

December 2019

Looking forward to lower returns

Joshua Kutin

Head of Asset Allocation, North America

Asset Allocation

Equities are currently enjoying their longest ever bull run. Since the March 2009 stock market lows of the financial crisis – with the exception of the final quarter of 2018 – equity markets have climbed almost relentlessly. In the year to date, the FTSE World index and the S&P 500 have enjoyed healthy double-digit returns.

December 2019

Improving outlook for risk assets

Neil Robson

Head of Global Equities

GLOBAL EQUITIES

The downturn in industrial output is bottoming out and corporate earnings – powered by rate cuts in the US and Europe – are about to accelerate.

December 2019

The recessionary cloud is about to lift

Nadia Grant

Head of US Equities, EMEA

US Equities

The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that we could not see in the data and, as a result, it seemed a good time to add to US equities: volatility was too high and assets too cheap.

Important information

The research and analysis included on this website has been produced by Columbia Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.