Insights

October 2019

The Great Fall of China?

FIXED INCOME DESK

In Credit - Weekly Snapshot

Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.

September 2019

US/China trade war undermines the outlook for equities

William Davies

Global Head of Equities

For the past 10 years, I have been positive about the prospects for equities. But at the end of May, I downgraded my view to neutral as the trade war between the US and China escalated. The rhetoric between the two superpowers was becoming more hard-line, and I foresaw the risks for equities rising. It appeared to me that the Chinese had decided to take a firmer line in negotiations, reducing the chances of a deal.

September 2019

Caution or precaution? Fixed income outlook for the second half of 2019

Gene Tannuzzo

Deputy Global Head of Fixed Income

Bond market performance in 2019 has been dominated by a theme of central banks pivoting towards easier policy. In particular, the US Federal Reserve has signalled potential interest rate cuts, marking a meaningful shift compared with the hiking cycle of the past three years. This has been a driving force behind double digit returns in many sectors of the bond market in the first half of the year.

September 2019

Is the eurozone headed for two decades of Japanstyle slow growth?

Mark Burgess

Deputy Global CIO and CIO, EMEA

Despite it being more than 10 years since the global financial crisis (GFC), the world remains heavily indebted and there is no realistic prospect of that debt reducing in the short or medium term. Barring glaring historical exceptions (such as in the wake of the Great Depression when US debt to gross domestic product (GDP) peaked at almost 120%), sovereign debt levels in many economies are close to all-time highs. They are certainly much higher than they were just two or three decades ago.

September 2019

‘Gold is money. Everything else is credit.’

FIXED INCOME DESK

In Credit - Weekly Snapshot

Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.

September 2019

Asset Allocation Update

Maya Bhandari

Portfolio Manager, Multi-asset

Treading a more tenuous path

The duration rally over the month of August was eye-watering. The whole German sovereign bond curve, out to 30 years, now trades with a negative yield, with half the European investment grade bond universe also yielding below zero. In the UK and US, meanwhile, markets have “baked in” the expectation that interest rates will be lower than today for the next 10 and 30 years respectively.

August 2019

Trouble in Argentina?

FIXED INCOME DESK

In Credit - Weekly Snapshot

Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.

August 2019

Asian equities: on the right side of history

Columbia Threadneedle Investments

 

While trade disputes overshadow markets, Asia ex-Japan equities continue to offer highly attractive long-term prospects as the world’s economy pivots eastwards.

August 2019

Spooked by the yield curve inversion

Columbia Threadneedle Investments

 

Fixed income investors need to be watchful and nimble as they navigate an economic environment marked by conflicting signals.

Important information

The research and analysis included on this website has been produced by Columbia Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.